Leading Indicators

These are early signs that suggest whether you’re on track to achieve a goal. They tend to be predictive and actionable.

Think of them as “canaries in the coal mine.”

🔹 Examples:

  • Number of daily signups (may predict future revenue)
  • % of users completing onboarding (may predict retention)
  • Weekly active users (early sign of growing engagement)
  • Referral invites sent (may forecast user growth)
  • Add-to-cart rate (can precede purchase rate)

✅ Pros:

  • Help you pivot quickly
  • Provide fast feedback
  • Useful in short-term experiments

❌ Cons:

  • Not always accurate predictors
  • May fluctuate a lot (less stable)

Lagging Indicators

These are outcomes — they tell you what happened, not what’s about to happen. They’re more stable but slower to reflect change.

Think of them as “scoreboards” — they tell you the final result.

🔹 Examples:

  • Revenue
  • Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
  • Retention after 30 days
  • Conversion to paying user
  • Churn rate

✅ Pros:

  • Clearly tied to business goals
  • Easy to quantify impact

❌ Cons:

  • Time-delayed
  • Hard to improve reactively

🎯 In Practice:

In an A/B test, you might track leading indicators to get early feedback and lagging indicators to confirm long-term value.

Example:

You launch a new onboarding flow for an app.

  • Leading Indicator: % of users completing onboarding in the first 10 minutes

  • Lagging Indicator: Day-30 retention rate